Money gets you that control. It puts you in the driver’s seat. It gives you that ability to dictate how you want to spend your time, with whom you want to spend that time and for how long. Not only does it buy you options, it also buys you freedom.

And that path to freedom starts with savings first. You have to set money aside, whatever the amount, to get to a point that first takes care of emergencies. Like a car breaking down, an unexpected medical expense or in the worst-case situation, a job loss.

So a healthy savings pile is crucial to tide us through such emergencies. And the data shows that we as Americans are failing miserably at this first step towards stability. 

Now some of that is not our own doing. Circumstances prevent us from taking this first step because incomes have not kept up with the rise in the cost of living. And that is so unfortunate.

But with that aside, some of it is behavioral as well. Consumerism runs rampant in our society and Americans are the best at that. I mean worst at that. We are expected to spend because our global economy relies upon the fact that when no one consumes, Americans will pick up the slack.

That is sad and we need to reverse that because not only does it wreak havoc with our personal finances, it also destroys our world. Literally.

So we need to not heed that proclamation to spend but instead, save. I say start with setting aside at a minimum six months of living expenses in something that is highly liquid and accessible. Like a bank. And when an expense emergency strikes, you are ready with ammunition to blunt the impact.

Now liquidity and accessibility has a cost and that cost comes in the form of lower returns. Or interest rates to be more precise. You don’t earn as much on your money because it is designed to not earn as much. As of this writing, we are looking at less than one percent interest rates on bank savings accounts. And that is where this money should reside.

So that’s for the shorter-term goals. But we know we can’t keep stashing our cash in the bank for longer-range goals like say saving for retirement. We need rates of returns that are higher, much, much higher than what a bank account yields. 

And the only way that is possible is through the process of investing. And investing means risks but the longer one can remain invested, the lower the risks become. One of the easiest ways to invest and participate in our global economy is through the stock markets. Plural because there is not one stock market. There are many. And we need to participate in all of them.

Stocks as we know are ownership stakes in businesses and they have historically delivered a higher rate of return than what a bank account yields. They have to by design. In the long run of course.

But words are just words. Let’s look at the numbers to see why invest rather than just stash our savings in a bank account. We’ll start first with a single one thousand dollar set aside in these two different vehicles and compare the outcome.

Seven percent for stocks is just about right in the current interest rate environment. It could turn out to be conservative in the long run but as they say, better to be safe than sorry.

So we see the difference.

Now a single one thousand dollars of investment is not going to do much. So instead, say we save a thousand dollars each year. And this is what we get…

So much better. But say the amounts even with that are nowhere close to what you need to buy that freedom.

And you realize that pretty late, say when you turn 60.

So you try to accelerate the savings amount by doing 10x or $10,000 a year for the remaining years. What do we get?

So there is a difference but not as big as you would have expected. And that’s because your contributions did not have as many years to compound.

But what if you realized sooner and could do the same acceleration of saving $10,000 when you turned 40. And you did it for that same 5 years.

A big difference.

And those stock market returns are not going to come easy and this is how bad it could get every now and then.

At least, that’s how bad it has been historically. So expect that but keep on investing.

In parting, a few things:

• Emergency reserves are a must. Six months living expense is the right amount. And this money needs to be liquid and readily accessible.
• And we can’t rely on ‘safe’ investments to meet our long range goals. That money needs to be invested. But that also means small and big declines in the value of your portfolio every now and then. Be ready and willing to endure through those times.
• And Captain Obvious, the sooner we get our savings into investments, the faster we can buy our way to freedom. Not freedom from work but freedom from working on somebody else’s terms.

That’s all I have to say for now.

Thank you for reading.

Cover image credit – Karolina Grabowska, Pexels

That’s not quite market timing (it is panic selling) but it usually is the outcome of investing without a plan. Why are we investing, what are we investing for and what are we investing in is super-critical to know if we have a fighting chance to stick with our investments during eventual market declines.

Because without that, without that conviction, we’ll end up making decisions that are more emotions-driven than following a blueprint on what to do when such downturns occur.

And they will recur because volatility, I mean ups and downs in the prices of stocks, is inherent with the stock market but given enough time, stocks will and do recover to reach new highs.

As they did from the last time around when stock prices dropped big. That is again a feature of how the stock markets work. 

So to give you a primer on how difficult this market timing game is, take for example the year 2020 that started off just like any other year. And then came this little virus out of nowhere and the entire world stopped. I mean no school, no restaurants, no travel. The economy suddenly literally ground to a halt.

And we know what that means. A big stock market crash. And it happened. They say it was the fastest decline in the value of businesses by the extent the stock market dropped.

But then the market recovered and that too in a matter of weeks.

But had you sold at the bottom and many people did assuming things were going to get a lot worse, well, now you have a problem. 

And that always is the big danger. I’ll get to the why later but let’s run through some numbers on why it would have been a bad idea to even attempt to time the market.

So there were 253 total trading days in the year 2020. Had you stayed invested all through the year and though not ideal, if all you owned was a large company fund like the S&P 500, yes, you would have had to live through intense volatility but you did good. I mean you made 15.29 percent on your money.

But had you sold to buy back into the market at a later point and missed the single best day, your return for the entire year would have dropped by two-thirds.

So miss just one day and your return drops from 15.29 percent to 5.40 percent. That’s crazy.

And that usually is the most likely outcome if you were to attempt this market timing thingy since you’d always tend to get out at the worst possible days and the worst possible days are almost always followed by the best recovery days.

The best days are again lumped together and had you missed the best two days, you might just have been better off keeping your money safe in a savings account. Because missing just two of the best days turned a positive year into a negative one.

The plots below show all this in percent and dollar terms so don’t market time.

But why show missing only the best days? What would it look like if I were to miss the worst days of the year?

Fair question and you’d be right. You’d have quite a bit more money if you were able to somehow navigate out of the market before the worst possible days and were somehow able to get back in time to enjoy the recovery.

And the data that shows just that.

But we all know how hard that is. I mean the math is plain impossible. Let me show you why.

So there were 253 trading days in the entirety of the year. Your chance of missing the single worst day is of course 1/253 = 0.004 or 0.4 percent. Not only are your odds low but even if you timed it perfectly, it’s not like you made the kind of killing that would have changed your life.

Missing the two worst days brought you quite a bit more money but then your chance of successfully pulling that off is 1/253 x 1/252 = teensy tiny small. You might as well play the lottery.

And of course being able to time the market that lets you avoid all five of the worst days are out of the world remote.

So don’t market time.

And all this ignores tax consequences and all that time you’ll spend away from what you are good at, constantly watching the markets and the emotional heartaches that’ll bring you. Because trust me (my dad), this thing can be quite draining.

So again, don’t market time.

And the same plays out over longer timeframes.

Miss the 20 best days out of thousands over this 15-year stretch and you might just have parked your money under your mattress.

And here’s the biggest problem with market timing. Say you sell at the worst possible times thinking that things would get even more worse and they do, there is almost no chance you’d be willing to pull the trigger to get back into the game because then you’d wait for things to get even more worse.

So you wait and out of nowhere, the market turns and turn it does violently. That is what always happens. And now it goes past the point you sold at.

Now you are stuck, hoping and praying it (the stock market) falls again. And it never does. Because stocks as a collection are inherently designed to rise in the long run. They must. That’s the nature of the game.

So again, don’t market time. Don’t give up on the guaranteed returns that the global stock markets will deliver over time for that fake allure of being able to dance in and out of the markets.

And the best way to protect against caving to that lure of market timing is to follow a plan. Any plan, regardless of how sub-optimal it might appear to be is better than no plan. And then come hell or high water, stick to that plan.

I bet you’d come out a-okay.

Thank you for reading.

Cover image credit – Monstera, Pexels

So first a snapshot of the many goals you might have to plan for…

And with life after work (retirement) being the most expensive amongst them, we will use that as a use case to lay out the construct since the same process can be replicated for other life goals.

But before anything, a thing or two about perpetuities. Back in the day in 1751, the British government issued something called Consolidated Annuities or Consols that paid a fixed 3% rate of return each year (cash flows) and had no maturity date (cash flows go on forever).

The modern day equivalent of a Consol is a perpetuity as in the cash flows continuing forever.

And quite elegantly…

The present value (the price today if you were to buy it) of a perpetuity = C/r

C is the cash flow you receive each year if you were to buy this perpetuity and r is the interest rate or the rate of return.

Most long duration assets are perpetuities. Stocks, especially of the growth kind, in theory are the ultimate perpetuities because the present value of the cash flows that they’ll generate that’ll flow to you in the form of dividends twenty, thirty, fifty years down the road is very close to zero. And hence their valuation today can be condensed to a very simple perpetuity type model shown above.

So that was some necessary sidetrack but not to dwell on it much, the most important takeaway is the estimation of the present value of a perpetuity.

Back to planning for retirement, this is what the accumulation and the distribution phases look like for that goal.

Though two different rates of returns are assumed for the two life phases, there is not and there should be not a clear demarcation between the two. Those rates of returns should change gradually, abruptly or none at all depending upon individual circumstances and market conditions but let’s assume these two distinct phases exist for you for now.

And we’ll start with the ‘in retirement’ phase first to help us quantify the $ value of the goal and then work backwards.

The first thing you’ll need to know are your income needs in retirement. I know it’s not easy to know that yet when you are like 25 but you should have some idea about the amount of money it takes to afford you a good life today. You then inflation adjust that to the year you retire and through retirement.

So during retirement, you’ll know the cash flow you’ll need and you have an estimate of the rate of return that the portfolio you’ll own is expected to deliver (r2 in this case).

Hence,

The $ value of the goal at retirement = The present value of a growing perpetuity that you buy right when you retire – The value of a growing perpetuity that you’ll buy at 100, discounted to the year you retire

Growing perpetuity is another flavor of a perpetuity where you assume growing cash flows (inflation-adjusted income need in retirement) instead of the constant cash flows we assumed in the original perpetuity equation.

So now that we know the $ value of the goal, we tackle the first phase of planning for retirement. And these are your accumulation years where you need to set aside a fixed amount of money each year to reach that goal.

We start with first discounting the $ value of the goal and bringing it to the present (at 25 in the plot above) using the assumed rate of return (portfolio growth rate = r1). Any savings (earmarked for retirement) that you already have now needs to be subtracted from the present value of the goal to calculate the gap you have to fill over the years to reach your goal.

That is…

The Gap = Present value of the goal – Savings you already have, earmarked for retirement

With this gap in savings required known, you can then reverse calculate the amount you need to set aside each year using the same perpetuity logic.

That is…

The Gap = The present value of a perpetuity you buy at 25 – The value of the perpetuity you buy at 65, discounted to the present (at 25)

You know the gap, you know the years to retirement and you know the portfolio growth rate during accumulation years and with that, you can back calculate the amount you need to save each year to fill that gap.

There is a lot that I skipped over to give a brief overview but for those interested in diving into the nitty-gritty of how this is done, a video tutorial is in the wings that I’ll release when ready.

Thank you for reading.

Cover image credit – Pixabay

Say you are 20 years old today and you invest a dollar at say 8% annual rate of return and leave it invested till you are 65. What would that dollar become? 34 dollars.

But say for some reason you waited till you were 30. So instead of the thirty-four dollars before, you’d have less than half of that or about sixteen dollars. Wait another 10 years to invest and you’d have a mere $7. Wait till you are 50 and you’ll have just $3 at age 65. Another ten years and it’s over.

So start early.

But of course a few tens of dollars will not change anything for you. You need more, a lot more to meet goals that are much bigger than what a few dollars can provide. We hear all the time about what you have to do to become a millionaire. But that is so last century. I’ll revise that to how to become a multi-millionaire.

Or at least a double millionaire. And say that is the goal. And you want to get there as fast as possible because you don’t have a lot of time. You’ve got just one life and you have many things you probably want to do with it than just think about money.

So say you are fresh out of college and you are fortunate enough to be making a great income. What’s a great income? How about $100,000 a year.

I know it sounds big but I see and hear that a lot of college graduates make that kind of money nowadays, at least in the Silicon Valley that I live in.

So say you take $10,000 of what you make each year and are able to invest that at 6%.

Oh wait, why 6%?

Yes, I did talk about 8% before but remember what we are trying to do here – we are planning for the worst and hoping for the best.

So let’s plan for our $2,000,000 goal assuming a 6% rate of return and $10,000 of annual savings.

And this is how it looks…

So 44 long years to get to that goal. That is way too long.

Can you speed that up? Yes, but it doesn’t come easy because that requires you to save more.

But I say it’s doable because you are making great income. All that’s needed is a little bit of discipline and expense management. It’s your life we are talking about here after all.

So here are four scenarios with four different saving amounts…

So going from saving $10,000 a year to $25,000 drops the number of years to reach your goal by almost 14 years. That is a lot of life you are getting to buy just because you were able to squirrel away more.

But what if you could earn a higher rate of return, say 8%. Now this is an aggressive assumption and it is completely possible but I wouldn’t count on it. But what would that do to your time scale?

So of course, you get to your goal faster because the rate of return is higher but did you notice that the gap in years between saving $10,000 vs. saving $25,000 is not as wide anymore?

Maybe it’s not as evident so let’s try two more rates of returns – 10% and 12%. I would definitely not count on that kind of a rate of returns for the near future but let’s just see.

So as the rate of return increases, the effectiveness of saving more decreases. And that makes sense. With a lower rate of return, the amount you save is a bigger proportion of the total accumulated wealth, especially in the early years as shown below.

But with a 12% rate of return, the proportion of total wealth that comes from pure savings drops at a much quicker rate with growth taking over. So you don’t have to try as hard. I mean you don’t have to scrimp and save but I hope it is not a sacrifice.

But we know that we are supposed to plan for the worst and hope for the best so with that in mind, what if you want to reach your goal in the same number of years as 12% rate of return does but assuming only a 6% rate of return? You can but you just have to save more as shown below.

So like before, the saving component is a bigger contributor to your total wealth. And you didn’t have to try as hard. I mean you didn’t have to take undue amount of risks to avail of that mystical 12% rate of return. For each and every year. For decades. 

All you had to do is save more which is a much safer bet. And $25,000 a year might feel tough in the initial years but over time, as you grow and as your income grows, it gets easier and easier.

That’s about it.

Thank you for reading.

Cover image credit – Anna Shvets, Pexels

Spreading your money into different types of investments to reduce risk of you losing your money when you need it the most. When picking out an asset mix, you want to choose investments in the right proportion that maximizes return while controlling for risk. That describes asset allocation.

Stocks, bonds and cash are the common components that make up an asset mix. And depending upon how much time you have to retire, that asset mix could look something like shown below.

How do they decide on the mix? Fluctuation in the value of a portfolio is a key part of choosing an asset mix. Stocks fluctuate a lot more than bonds or cash, but they tend to make the most over time. Bonds don’t fluctuate as much as stocks and cash is just cash. It stays the same. 

And if you look at the plot above, you see a pattern. The more years you are away from retirement, the more stocks you own. Then why not buy more stocks when you are in retirement? Keep in mind that stocks tend to drop more frequently so when you need the money to live on, you might be forced to sell stocks at a low point. And once you sell and when eventually stocks recover, you will not participate in the recovery. And that is why you also own bonds and cash.

So that’s asset allocation.

Thank you for reading.

Cover image credit – Andrea Piacquadio, Pexels

But then you didn’t have much roads to build and maintain or government programs to run or the school system to educate or much of police, fire or military. They all came about and they cost money and hence the situation now.

The Federal income tax started out small with a base rate of just 1 percent on personal income but that came along with an exemption (no taxes) of $3,000. That virtually exempted the entire middle class from paying any taxes. On incomes above $20,000, there was an additional surtax of six percent.

And we are talking 1913 dollars here so a $20,000 income back then was huge. So only the super-rich had to worry about paying any taxes at all. 1913 by the way was also the birth year of the form 1040 that you still use to date to report and file your Federal income taxes.

So a simple little form that even a fifth grader could understand and file. But that was in 1913. That same form today goes on for pages and pages with all the modifications and additions to the tax code over the years. So not a simple process to file anymore.

But Federal income taxes are not the only taxes you owe each year. There are payroll taxes (Social security, Medicare) you pay that directly come out of your paycheck. Then there are state and local taxes, taxes on dividends, capital gains taxes etc. So taxes and more taxes. Approaching that 50% mark in terms of the total taxes you pay each year is completely plausible in some cases.

Now that you are happy, the system the way it’s designed is also fair. Or say fairer. That is, it’s progressive. As you make more money, you pay more in taxes. We’ll dig into that a bit more but before that, this is the general outline of our tax code.

Income is a combination of all things below.

Wages and salaries are typically what’s reported on Box 1 of your W-2 that you’ll need to file your taxes. Unless of course you are an independent consultant/contractor and receive a 1099-MISC with income reported on Box 7 of that form. That’s akin to running a business and hence is reported as business profits (or losses) in the income section above.

You could have both W-2 and 1099-MISC incomes in any given year if you have any sort of a side-hustle apart from your day job. And many do.

So what’s on a W-2? A detailed breakdown below…

The total Social Security taxes you paid for a year are reported on Box 4 of the W-2 and Medicare taxes on Box 6. Now it’s not completely fair to call them taxes as these are monies that you put in a system that pays for retirement and healthcare expenses for folks who are currently retired. But when you are done working and reach an eligible age, you’ll get some or most of it back from folks who are working and paying into the system then. So it’s a societal construct and a promise that’s made between generations and it’s an overall good thing. Not perfect but good.

But there are questions with respect to the sustainability of these constructs which we hope the leaders we elect will help resolve over time.

Apart from W-2 and 1099-MISC incomes, there is interest income that’s reported on something called 1099-INT that you’ll get from your bank that reports the interest income you earned on your savings for the year. You likely won’t have to worry much about earning anything on your savings these days though but you could if your stash has any heft.

Then there is dividend income that you’ll have to pay taxes on if you own stocks (publicly traded businesses) and when those stocks distribute profits back to you, the owner (stockholder).

Capital gains (or losses) are exactly that – gains or losses on an asset from the time it’s purchased to the time of its sale.

And business profits (or losses) we know. It could be anything that you make money off of and making money means paying taxes.

So that’s all the income but you don’t pay tax on all of that. You get to deduct a few things from that income to arrive at net taxable income.

What can you deduct? The most common ones below…

Your taxable income reduces by the amount of deductions allowed. So say your gross income is $50,000 for the year and you are filing as a single person and you rent instead of owning a home, your taxable income reduces by the standard deduction of $12,400 and you get taxed on the remainder of that.

Then comes the actual calculation of the tax due. We are part of a system that taxes income progressively. Almost all taxes are by the way. The more money you make, the more taxes you pay. It’s debatable whether it does an overall good or not and one can argue that at the margins, it does tend to discourage incentives to make more. I mean if you are in the highest tax bracket and the fact that the next set of dollars you earn, almost half of that is going to be taxed away anyway, that does create a little bit of discouragement to go out and make those dollars.

But then a healthy country needs a healthy middle class else we’ll all be living in armed and gated communities like many affluent folks do in other parts of the world where extreme gaps between the haves and the have nots persist.

But the system we are part of (capitalism), if not corrected from time to time, does tend to perpetuate accumulation of capital in the hands of the few. That’s the way it is designed so a bit of income and wealth distribution is for the overall good. Hence the tax structure the way it is.

And this is how taxes are calculated…

But then there are credits that directly reduce your tax bill. They are again designed to help folks on the lower income segment of the society to potentially help reduce or eliminate any tax liability thrusted upon them.

Tax credits fall into two camps; refundable and non-refundable. If a refundable tax credit exceeds the amount of taxes owed, the difference is paid as a refund. If a non-refundable credit exceeds the amount of taxes owed, the excess is lost.

Let me clarify that with an example. Say your tax due comes to a $1,000 and a refundable tax credit that you qualify for is in the amount of $1,250, you’ll get the difference in $250 back as a refund. But if that tax credit were non-refundable, your tax bill will drop to zero but you will not get any money back.

So not only do you pay no tax but you could get money back from your fellow taxpayers, if you qualify.

And after all that math, you get to your final Federal tax due bill. Then you’ve got state income taxes if they apply. Plus city taxes in some cases (New York City).

Now that we know a bit about how taxes work, let’s run through some scenarios to see what an individual’s total tax bill could amount to and what could be done to lower that.

This, for example, is a W-2 this single wage-earner residing in CA gets at the end of the year.

The taxes he or she ends up paying when filing a tax return that everyone MUST do come April 15^th of each year…

But that’s not all the taxes this individual pays for the year. A complete list…

Let’s take this same individual but this time around, he or she contributes to an IRA and to an HSA. The updated W-2…

The tax math when filing taxes…

His or hers total tax bill for the year…

So not only was this individual able to lower his or hers tax bill but now there is money that is invested on a tax-deferred (IRA) and tax-free (HSA) basis till retirement. So much better.

Let’s look at a few more scenarios. Here’s one where now we have two wage-earners with no kids (dual income, no kids, I mean DINKs) making great incomes and also CA residents. Both partners get a W-2 each at the end of the year and for simplicity’s sake, we’ll assume that to be the same for both.

So even with access to a retirement plan at work, both decide not to participate. The tax math hence…

The combined W-2 Box 1 income is 2x of what’s shown in the W-2 because dual income. The total of all taxes paid…

So not fun. But doing the same tax math assuming they had done what they should have done…

And the impact on total taxes paid…

So about $15k in total tax savings for the year by doing it right.

Of course, there are many permutations and combinations with the complex tax code we have but this hopefully gives a good overview of how our taxes work. And this applies to most of us.

Now only if we could figure out a way to make our government spend our tax dollars ‘right’.

That does it. Thank you for persevering through something as dull and dry as taxes. Not as fun to write about but necessary.

Until later.

Cover image credit – Oladimeji Ajegbile, Pexels

How do I know? Let’s run through some of the events the world has persevered through and yet capitalism marched on. The plot below is the growth of a dollar invested towards the end of 1914 in a basket of U.S. stocks and left there untouched since.

That story likely repeats for global stocks as well but because of limited data going that far back, we’ll use the data we have as a proxy.

And all these markers are events, mostly bad where if we were in the midst of them, we had every reason to bail. But had we not and remained invested, we did well.

Also, the y-axis above is log scale so those bumps that appear to be baby bumps are in fact deep craters that almost looked like it was the end of the world. But we are still here. You are still here.

A cursory look at the market returns we would have to endure through to get here.

These are annualized returns that measures the value of a dollar invested from the start of each year to the end of that year. This does not capture the intra-year (within that year) volatility which many a times is massive. What I mean by that is that we might end a year with say a 7% portfolio return but we would have endured a 30% intra-year drawdown first to eventually recover enough and avail of that 7% return.

And that has happened and will continue to happen. Persevering through that and sticking to our well-crafted investment plans is the only choice we have. And that is the right choice.

It’s one thing to look at the annualized returns and think, no biggie. I can handle that.

But a year is a long, long time watching the value of our portfolios decline day after day, month after month. Only when passing through that phase do we really realize how excruciatingly painful it is. We are likely experiencing that now. But endure through that we must. That is part of the deal.

If one year decline is rough, multi-year declines like the period post the Dot-com crash or the 70’s bear market or during what we had to endure through during the Great Depression is 10x worse. Things eventually recover but we have to continue investing through that by sticking to our plans no matter what. That is the only choice. And that is the right choice.

But who has a 100-plus year timeframe to invest? Okay, so let’s break this timeline into smaller chunks.

1915-1950

Why the quote unquote around only? Let’s chronicle the events that transpired during this time span to find out. And a 35 year timeframe matches a typical career span so even better.

1914 Austrian Prince Archduke Francis Ferdinand travels to Sarajevo to inspect the imperial armed forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, annexed by Austria-Hungary in 1908. The annexation had angered Serbian nationalists who believed the territories should be part of Serbia. A group of young nationalists hatch a plot to kill the Archduke during his visit to Sarajevo. After some missteps, 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip was able to shoot the royal couple at point-blank range while they traveled in their official procession, killing both almost instantly. The assassination sets off a rapid chain of events as Austria-Hungary immediately blames the Serbian government for the attack. As the large and powerful Russia supported Serbia, Austria asks for assurances that Germany would step in on its side against Russia and its allies that include France and Great Britain. On July 28, Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia and the fragile peace between Europe’s great powers collapses, beginning the devastating conflict now known as the World War I.

1914 The outbreak of war forces NYSE to shut its doors on July 31, 1914 after large numbers of foreign investors start selling their holdings in hopes of raising money for the war effort. All of the world’s major financial markets follow suit and close their doors by August 1. It would be about 4 months the markets remain closed. Imagine that happening today.

1915 One millionth Ford automobile rolls off the assembly line. Concerns around the fact that the demand for oil will outstrip supply and that the world will run out of oil soon. And then what? The Peak Oil theory will remain a concern like forever and here we are today with the likes of Tesla relegating the fact that the world will ever run out of oil as a non-issue. Stocks gain 81% that year.

1915 The Armenian genocide. Between 600,000 to a million dead.

1917 U.S enters the war. Stock market declines by 22% that year.

1918 Worldwide influenza pandemic strikes (Spanish Flu). It continues till December of 1920 infecting around 500 million people, a quarter of the world’s population. Estimated death toll ~ between 17 million to 50 million and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history. An estimated 675,000 Americans die. Stocks gain 11% that year.

1918 Germany signs the Armistice at Compiègne ending World War I. 20 million dead worldwide with 21 million wounded.

1918 Russian revolutionaries execute the former czar and his family leading to a Russian Civil War between Reds (Bolsheviks) and Whites (anti-Bolsheviks). Reds win in 1920 and hence the onset of worldwide communism.

1927 German economy collapses. Stocks gain 37% that year.

1929 The stock market crash on Oct. 29 marks the start of the Great Depression and sparks America’s and likely the world’s most famous bear market. The S&P 500 falls 86 percent in less than three years and does not regain its previous peak until 1954 (in price). Stocks decline 8% that year.

1930 Unemployment soars, trade suffers from Smoot-Hawley tariffs. U.S. imports from and exports to Europe fall by some two-thirds between 1929 and 1932 while overall global trade declines by similar levels in the four years that the legislation is in effect. Stocks decline another 25% that year.

1932 Six million die in Soviet famine. Stocks continue their decline (another 9%) after a horrific 44% decline the year before from the already depressed levels.

1933 Germany and Japan withdraw from League of Nations. Stocks soar 50%.

1934 Dust Bowl problem continues. The worst drought in 300 years plagues 75% of the country. Stocks remain almost flat for the year.

1935 Nazis repudiate Treaty of Versailles. Stocks gain 47%.

1937 Beijing falls to the invading Japanese forces. Stocks decline 35%.

1938 Hitler annexes Austria. A 29% stock market gain.

1939 Germany invades Poland. Stocks close flat for the year.

1940 France falls under Nazi occupation. Stocks decline 11%.

1941 Pearl Harbor attack. US enters World War II. Stocks decline another 13%.

1944 The Battle of the Bulge called “the Greatest American battle of the war” by Winston Churchill. Fought in the Ardennes region of Belgium, this was Adolf Hitler’s last major offensive in the war against the Western Front. Hitler’s aim was to split the Allies in their drive toward Germany. The German troops failure to divide Britain, France and America with the Ardennes offensive paved the way to victory for the allies. Lasting six brutal weeks, from December 16, 1944, to January 25, 1945, the assault, also called the Battle of the Ardennes, took place during frigid weather conditions with some 30 German divisions attacking battle-fatigued American troops across 85 miles of the densely wooded Ardennes Forest. As the Germans drove into the Ardennes, the Allied line took on the appearance of a large bulge, giving rise to the battle’s name. The battle proved to be the costliest ever fought by the U.S. Army (about 100,000 casualties). Stocks gain 19%.

1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombings. 200,000 dead. Stocks gain 36%.

1946 Worst work stoppages since 1919. Less than a year after the end of World War II, stock prices peak and begin a long slide. As the postwar surge in demand tapers off and Americans pour their money into savings, the economy tips into a sharp “inventory recession”. Stocks decline 8%.

1950 North Korean communists invade South Korea. Stock market gains 31%.

So this 35-year timeline that includes the Great Depression, two World Wars, pandemics and every unimaginably bad thing that could have ever happened to this world and we still came out okay being invested in capitalism.

And if there was ever such a thing as financial planning in those days and you panicked and deviated from the plan you had in place and sold at any point in time, well that would have been a sin. Not the greatest of sins but a sin. Why?

The financial underpinnings of the world were still in the early formative stages. The Federal Reserve bank that acts like a stabilizing force during times of economic upheaval today didn’t even exist up until 1913. And even when it did, there was not a lot of data and expertise on how to navigate around pandemics and wars and recessions. Everybody was learning. The system was learning with the world waffling back and forth between two distinct economic systems.

So you were forgiven if you had committed that ultimate sin but had you not and dollar cost averaged into the markets during those 35 years by investing a dollar each year, this is what you’d have.

So instead of $15, you end up with an amount 13x more. That’s hail to the power of an ironclad gut, a long-term mindset and dollar cost averaging. And notice that reduction in volatility because of your consistency in adding to your portfolio no matter what.

Let’s finish off this timeline thingy by recounting the major events that happened 1951 hence and the journey of that dollar that you (or your prescient ancestors) started in 1914.

1951-2020

1951 Seoul falls to Communist forces. Stocks gain 24%.

1953 The Korean War ends with the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement. The agreement creates the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) to separate North and South Korea and allows the return of prisoners. However, no peace treaty is signed and the two Koreas are technically still at war, engaged in a frozen conflict. The Korean War is relatively short but exceptionally bloody. Nearly 5 million people die with more than half of them, civilians. Almost 40,000 Americans die in action in Korea with more than 100,000 wounded. Stocks remain flat for the year.

1957 Asian Flu Pandemic (a Chinese origin H2N2 avian influenza) claims 2 million lives. Stocks decline 10% that year.

1958 The Great Chinese famine kills 30 million. Stocks gain 44%.

1959 The Cuban Revolution – communism at America’s doorstep. Stocks gain 12%.

1961 The Bay of Pigs invasion – a failed attempt at ousting Fidel Castro from power. Stocks gain 27%.

1962 Cuban missile crisis sparks Cold War jitters. President Kennedy is assassinated. Stocks decline 9%.

1964 U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War accelerates post the Gulf of Tonkin incident. U.S. also conducts large-scale strategic bombing campaigns against North Vietnam and Laos. Stocks gain 16%.

1968 The Tet Offensive. American public’s resistance to the Vietnam War grows. Despite heavy casualties, North Vietnam achieves a strategic victory with the Tet Offensive as the attacks mark a turning point in the Vietnam War and the beginning of a slow and painful American withdrawal from the region. Stocks gain 11%.

1973 Israel’s Yom Kippur War and the subsequent Arab oil embargo sends energy prices soaring. A lengthy recession ensues. Inflation rate tops 10%. Nixon resigns post the Watergate scandal. Stocks drop 14%.

1975 Vietnam War ends with about 1.4 million Vietnamese and 58,000 Americans dead. Stocks gain 37%.

1979 Iran hostage crisis. Stocks gain 19%.

1980 After nearly a decade of sustained inflation, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to nearly 20 percent, pushing the economy into a recession. The combination of high inflation and slow growth (stagflation) was a big factor behind Ronald Reagan’s victory over President Carter. Stocks gain 31%.

1983 Terrorist explosion kills 237 U.S. Marines in Beirut. Stocks gain 22%.

1987 Black Monday. Dow falls 22.6% in a single day, the worst in one day since the Panic of 1914. Yet, while the days after the crash were frightening, by early December, the markets bottom out and a new bull run commences. Stocks go on to not only make back all the losses but end the year +6%.

1990 Iraqi troops invade Kuwait. Stocks decline 3%.

1991 The Persian Gulf War. Stocks deliver a 30% return.

1997 The Asian currency crisis. The crisis starts in Thailand on July 2nd with the collapse of the Thai baht after the Thai government is forced to free-float the baht due to lack of foreign currency reserves that previously supported its peg to the U.S. dollar. Capital flight ensues almost immediately beginning an international chain reaction. At the time, Thailand had borrowed heavily that made the country effectively bankrupt even before the collapse of its currency. As the crisis spreads, most of Southeast Asia and Japan see slumping currencies, devalued stock markets, depressed real assets and a precipitous rise in private debt. Stocks earn 33% that year.

1998 The Russian financial crisis. Long Term Capital Management blows up on excessive leverage. Stock market gains 28%.

2000 The bursting of the Dot-com bubble. Stocks decline 9%.

2001 September 11 terrorist attacks. Stocks decline another 12%.

2003 The 2nd Iraq War begins. Stocks gain 28%.

2005 Insurgency spreads. Stocks gain 5%.

2007 A long-feared bursting of the housing bubble becomes a reality and the rising mortgage delinquency rate quickly spills over into the credit markets. By 2008, Wall Street giants like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers start toppling and a financial crisis erupts into a full-fledged panic. By February of 2008, the market falls to its lowest levels since 1997. Stocks earn 5% that year.

2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy. The global financial system is on the verge of collapse. Stocks end the year down 37%.

2016 Donald Trump elected President. Stocks gain 12%.

2018 End of the year stock market decline approaches 20%. Stocks end the year down 4%.

2020 The ongoing Coronavirus pandemic. A 26% decline so far.

I understand any amount of chronicling of history is not enough in light of the mayhem we have seen in the markets and in our portfolios lately. And these are also the times that remind us of the role bonds and cash play in our portfolios if drawing income to live on is a necessity. For the rest of us, we did right by sticking with the portfolios we own.

But these are also the type of events that separate us from folks who commit the ultimate investing sin if there was ever and that is to panic sell. There is no reason to and there is no need to. Granted, there will be some restructuring in the global economic landscape in light of this pandemic. Weaker companies will fail and the stronger ones will come out even stronger than before. And you don’t want to be there picking winners and losers because you are statistically much more likely to own losers than winners. You want the market to sort this out and it will over time.

This world of ours has endured far worse and we see that. We would come out of this just fine. I bet we would be looking back in a decade on this entire episode and say that was nothing. The world has seen far worse. 

And if you are in your twenties or thirties or even in your forties and you are new to this market volatility, I say this: you will have many such episodes in your life when your portfolio massively declines in value, sometimes for a reason and other times, without any. But you have to remain invested because that is part and parcel of this whole process of getting from point A to point B and beyond.

And for the finance nerds out there, when we invest in stocks, we are in fact buying perpetuities that promise to deliver a stream of cash flows this year, next year and many years beyond that, discounted at an appropriate discount rate to the present day. This episode we are living through will impair a few years’ worth of those cash flows but the longer term cash flows will eventually come through. They have to.

Markets tend to overextend on the way up and on the way down. That’s natural. But remember, things are never as bad as they seem when all hell is breaking loose and you are in the midst of that. At the same time, things are never as good as they seem when everything is going great.

So plan for things to go bad when things are going well. And when things look miserable, keep in mind that things will eventually get better.

So don’t go crazy not having any safety buffer to tide you through in situations where your income gets disrupted temporarily. At the same time, don’t panic.

And if you are a market participant (you have to be, you have no other choice), you’ve got to own stocks. There is no plan you can theoretically design in today’s interest rate environment where you can avoid that asset class completely. But when you do own stocks, you’ve got to be prepared for declines every now and then because as Charlie Munger says…

“If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament and who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.”

Not sure about being philosophical…okay, I can be a bit philosophical but if it makes you feel any better, this is a small collection of businesses amongst the thousands you own if you own a global market portfolio. And they are selling at a discount. So buy if you can.

Some companies will burn and die but capitalism will survive. It has to because… Pascal’s Wager?

The only folks who get absolutely demolished in bad times are the ones who take on excessive leverage. The only leverage that you should very reluctantly sign up for in your own personal life is your home mortgage. And very, very reluctantly at that.

And leverage, especially with stocks, never. Because I am with The Oracle on this…

“It’s insane to risk what you have and need for something you don’t really need. You will not be way happier if you double your net worth.”

And Black Swan events like these is when we see the folks flirting with leverage get completely wiped out. Those 10 AirBnB rentals that you thought you could lever up and make a killing? Not happening. That’s the nature of blind risk and capitalism has a way to cleanse the system every once in a while. That’s ultimately healthy but you don’t want to be a part of that process.

But never in my wildest imagination did I predict these unfolding of events not only with the markets but with our lives. I have been hoping and praying that there would be a correction to clean out the excesses because I feared that the longer the good times rolled, the more remote a chance of a decline will seem, the more overconfident investors will feel and the more risk they’ll take. Which means that that eventual fall, which is a near certainty, would be far more deep and wide.

But what about all those folks who got out just in time before the markets crashed and will likely get back in before they recover?

Yes, of course. And I have a bronze colored bridge I’d like to part with at the right price.

You might get lucky timing the getting out part once or maybe twice in your life but you also have to get the getting in part right. And markets don’t usually recover when you think they’ll recover. They make big and sudden moves which will catch you off-guard and you then miss the boat. Plus these moves tend to happen at the bleakest of times when all hope is lost.

And say you got out in time before the crash and you got back in at the bottom. So you got lucky twice. What’s the lesson you learnt? That the moment you have that inkling of a disaster on the horizon in the future, you’ll get out. And that disaster never happens. Or it happens but it’s not as severe and the markets zoom past the point you sold. What happens then? You wait? Wait for a decade?

Because that is precisely what many investors did this past decade and hence missed out on all those gains before these recent spate of events.

So don’t mess around. Remain invested.

Good investing is a lot about psychology and behavior combined with a decent dose of history with a sprinkle of math and finance. Any one of them missing from the mix and it’s going to be real hard to meet your goals.

And getting sucked into a fad here and a fad there and assembling investments with no particular rhyme or reason beyond hoping that you buy low and you will get to sell higher is not what it’s all about. I have seen folks talk about this airline stock or that cruise stock. Fine. A few of them will work out but what’s the definition of working out? A double or a triple? Pre-tax?

And you for sure didn’t stake the kind of money that’ll change your life. So if you didn’t, don’t bother. Stick to your plan.

I am not saying you have to but maybe you’ve got to have someone who knows these things watch over your financial life. Because as Phil Demuth, author of several excellent books and the founder of Conservative Wealth Management opines…

“If you manage your own money, you are potentially vulnerable to every crackpot investing idea that comes along. It only takes one.”

Only one. Maybe you will but most don’t get many shots at this. So act wisely.

And what I am truly worried about is the long-term health of our retirement system because when I see stats like an average retiree nearing retirement has only $50,000 saved, I say holy s#*@. We are screwed. Because as William Bernstein says…

“I’ve flown airplanes, and as a doctor, I’ve taken care of kids who can’t walk. Investing for retirement is probably harder than either of those two activities, yet we expect people to be able to do it on their own.”

And that’s why we all yearn for those pension systems of the past where we had someone other than us pool assets together with our fellow savers and design a plan with enough safeguards to make sure that the money lasts longer than any of us individually.

That don’t exist and we’ll have to live with that. In the meantime, a few tips to navigate around this and future market turbulences.

• Always, always keep emergency reserves that cover at the minimum 6 months of living expenses. And depending upon the type of work you do, maybe you need more but 6 months is the ideal minimum. Granted, it is a tall order for many folks who cannot afford to set aside literally anything because they can’t. But I know you can. How? Because you got this far reading this.
• Never panic. You will encounter many a market crashes and recessions through your investing life. You just have to acknowledge that fact and design a plan that lets you survive those events. You need to realize your own volatility to heartburn ratio and this is the time to take notes. The higher that ratio, the more equity risk you can handle and the higher the returns you can expect. A lower ratio means that you’ll sleep alright but then you have to be prepared to save ungodly sums of money to maintain the same standard of living as before through a likely long retirement.
• It’s obvious but try to avoid taking on too much debt of any kind, especially of the lifestyle kind. Screw that big home with an albatross as a mortgage if it bogs you down. It’s unfortunate that we as a country through our tax policies and incentives have turned shelter into an asset class. And a retirement plan. That’s stupid and real bad in the long run, not only for you as a home owner but also for future economic growth. And environmental costs aside, it locks people in place, decreases social mobility and increases risks in the system and in our lives. Let others participate in this game but you remain mindful of the debt you take on.
• Never borrow and invest, ever. We’ll see the repercussions of that soon as a lot of over-leveraged real estate ventures and businesses go belly up. I mean all these folks were running their ’empires’ in a way that they could not sustain a couple months of income disruption? Come on.
• And stay far, far away with that mindset of Keeping Up with the Joneses. Design your life around being happy with as small an overhead as possible. The freedom and the peace of mind that comes with that will be priceless. You’ll sleep better, play better and work better. All good.

So that’s all I have to say for now. Thank you for reading.

Until later.

Cover image credit: Josie Stephens, Pexels

So that’s that but the other big risk of course is the probability of outliving our savings. And volatility is one reason we tune our portfolios depending upon when, how much and for how long we are going to draw income from our savings.

But what could really throw a monkey-wrench into all our planning is the pattern associated with that volatility. Are the ups and downs of our portfolios random or is there an inherent pattern to how those returns transpire? Peter L. Bernstein in his book ‘Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk‘ hints at caution against over-reliance on historical data for just this reason.

So we pour in data from the past to fuel the decision-making mechanisms created by our models, be they linear or nonlinear. But therein lies the logician’s trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand. Even though many economic and financial variables fall into distributions that approximate a bell curve, the picture is never perfect. It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks.

That is that even if you were able to extract the key statistical measures from past data, you don’t want to just go on and use them to predict what future returns will amount to. That’s because without taking into consideration the current market environment and those outlier events, you could be way off from what you planned.

And the sequence of how those portfolio returns come about during retirement could be one of those outlier events that determines whether you depart with millions left behind or your money departs way before you depart. The technical term for this and as implied is the sequence of returns risk. That’s one more risk we need to plan for and to understand its implication, we’ll walk through just what could go wrong even when we have done everything right.

So even though an over-reliance on past data could lead us astray with our plans, we still need some basic metrics to anticipate what future returns could look like. So we do just that and use historical performance data for both stocks and bonds in some combination of each in a given portfolio to simulate those outlier scenarios. We first fit a simulated distribution (in yellow) of returns for stocks over a distribution of the actual past returns (in pink) as shown below to see if a bell-shaped distribution of returns assumption holds.

It does to some extent for this one sample so we go with this assumption and extract the mean (average) and the volatility (standard deviation) associated with that distribution as a baseline to help predict future returns. The average historical return for stocks by the way is the black, dashed line which shows that stocks on average have returned around 10% annually during this entire time-frame.

We do the same for bonds and extract the relevant parameters to help us with predicting future returns. The average actual historical return for bonds is shown by the black, dashed line below.

Before I get arrested for committing more statistical crimes, if you were to retire today, expecting anything more than 3% in annual returns from a Treasury bond portfolio is outright lunacy. And hence even if the average return for bonds in the past was 5%, we’ll use a static 3% for the bond component of our portfolios during retirement. And while we are at it, we’ll also apply a 30% haircut to the average predicted return for stocks during retirement while preserving the same volatility estimate as in the past.

Why do that? For bonds, it’s clear. Just look at where interest rates are today.

What we can reasonably expect out in the future is either rates remaining the same or rising.

And we know what a rising rate environment does to the price of bonds and hence the 3% total return assumption for the bond component of our portfolios.

Paying interest on bonds (issuing debt to finance operations) is a cost to businesses and a rising rate environment means that the cost to service that debt will rise as well. That implies a decline in profitability for businesses that rely on debt financing and that along with where the stock market valuations are today means a 30% haircut on future stock market returns assumption is quite reasonable.

Using these corrected return estimates and past volatility measures, we predict what future stock market returns could look like.

That intermittently random pattern of returns is what we could typically expect though this is just one sample. But what if the sequence of stock market returns of the future follow this pattern?

Or this?

Shown below is what a $1.25 million portfolio invested in a 60/40 stock/bond mix that is re-balanced annually grows to during 35 years in retirement for the three patterns of stock market returns described above. Remember that the bond component is assumed to yield a static 3% during this entire time-frame.

Why start out with a $1.25 million portfolio? That’s because this number assumes a $50,000 inflation-adjusted income draw for each year in retirement and the so-called 4% rule for withdrawal rate at the start gets us to a portfolio size of $1.25 million.

So regardless of the sequence of returns, the final value of the portfolio is the same. And that’s because we are not drawing income from this portfolio yet and hence is left to compound for all those years in retirement.

But this is what happens if we were to draw a 4% annual inflation-adjusted income stream off of the starting portfolio balance.

If the stock markets crater first like what would have happened to us if we were unlucky enough to retire say in 2007 or any other prior stock market peaks, we could run out of money very quickly. And that’s with doing everything right. It’s just that we were dealt a bad hand of the returns distribution.

So what do we do? We save more where instead of relying on say drawing 4% from our portfolios, we get by on drawing 3%. Or even 2%. Why? Say instead of a $1.25 million portfolio to start with, if we had saved up double that amount (ouch), that same $50,000 in income need is a 2% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate. And that could be had from the dividends and interest payments alone without the need to touch principal. Heck, if that is our income need on a $2.5 million portfolio, we can skip owning bonds in entirety and just live on stock dividends in perpetuity and still have plenty left (if that is our goal).

If doubling of savings is not a possibility, another option as highlighted by Dr. Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income Planning at The American College of Financial Services in this piece is to use a rising glidepath approach to stock allocation while simultaneously reducing the bond component of our portfolios in retirement. That’s counter to what traditional asset allocation models recommend but what this strategy entails is starting out with a very low allocation to stocks right when we retire and gradually increasing that to say 100% stocks towards the later stages of our life in retirement. That’s not likely to completely eliminate the risk of running out of money but will greatly improve the odds of being able to sustain our lifestyles during the entirety of our retirement, so the paper says.

Here’s an example of what happens with the three portfolio return scenarios when we start out with a 10% allocation to stocks and incrementally increase that to 100% stocks through retirement.

So now, instead of running out of money in say year 10 for the worst-case sequence of returns pattern, we were able to extend our income drawing time-frame by double the number of years.

But this apparent safety does not come free as seen by the ending portfolio values for the other two scenarios.

So that was a lot of number crunching and pretty plotting but in an environment where future capital market returns are expected to be low, saving more buys us that ticket to not becoming a victim to an outlier event. Because to quote from that same book by Peter L. Bernstein again,

The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us.

So market returns will be whatever they will be but we know this one thing that still remains in our control and that is how much we save. And of course, the sooner we start, the more time we have for the money to compound and the easier the going gets.

Thank you for reading.

Until later.

Cover image credit – Artem Bali, Pexels